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Prediction for CME (2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-12-16T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9854/-1
CME Note: This entry is for two CME in close succession, starting on 2015-12-16T09:24 UT and 2015-12-16T14:24 UT in LASCO C2.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-19T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-12-19T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Note: This prediction is for the first CME at 9:24 UT on December 16.

:Issued: 2015 Dec 17 0753 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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Two halo CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 images.

The first halo CME was first seen in LASCO C2 images at 9:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the ENE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average speed of 552 km/s. This CME is probably associated with the C6.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2468 with peak time 9:03 UT (which showed a dimming and a post eruption arcade as well).

The second halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 14:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the SSE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average speed of 489 km/s. It is probably associated to a dual ribbon flaring of a filament channel near NOAA AR 2468 starting around 12:57 UT on December 16.
Information about the estimated arrival times of these CMEs will follow later.

CACTUS merged these two halo CMEs and detected them as a single one.
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Lead Time: 52.32 hour(s)
Difference: 11.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-12-17T11:08Z
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